Foreign Office Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.