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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still