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The most severe possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by scientists, including a searing 4C increase in average temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea level. An alternative projection envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are linked to critical climate thresholds, are seen as improbable but possible. The researchers explained that these projections plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are credible," said the lead researcher who oversaw the research. "The nation has been planning in the absence of the frameworks to test against extreme possibilities. We've now provided planners what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but must not overlook."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Possibilities

Another collection of dire projections sets out the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These suggest that thermometer readings could skyrocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be three times standard measurements.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes occurring cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what steps will be enacted to combat global warming and how the Earth's systems will react. This approach was likened to defence planning or stress tests for economic stability.

Key Outcome Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if climate action collapses or if powerful amplifying effects including the tropical forests perishing unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water resources would be fundamentally reshaped," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion block solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

The severe models could be applied to guide the development of major projects, such as expanded cities, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Understanding these environmental threats could also hasten the drive to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The research created the severe projections using a mix of real-world events, computer simulations and climate physics. The scenarios omit potential global problems such as the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The project was requested as part of a national climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have warned that not enough attention was being allocated to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the dangers for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

An official statement said: "The climate emergency is at the center of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the impacts."